There’s no single narrative throughline that cleanly explains last night. It’s time to throw FiveThirtyEight and the polling-analysis-industrial complex into the ocean, but if you’re grasping for a story to reinforce your priors, you’re unlikely to find it.
- November 5, 2020
Regardless of who wins the presidency, courtroom battles seem almost certain. Here’s a layperson’s look at the states and laws that may determine the outcome.
- November 4, 2020
Tonight, the election returns look relatively good for Trump, which is why he talked about claiming a victory at the end of election night. This is the so-called “red mirage.” But as the mail-in ballots get counted, everyone expects the Democratic numbers to climb fast and far.
- October 29, 2020
At some level, the ad cancellations are more accurate than the polls on the big questions of who may win easily and who’s still in a fight.
- October 16, 2020
Election day is still weeks away, but a staggering 17.1 million voters have already cast their ballots either by mail or in person, according to data collected by Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who closely tracks voter turnout.