Morning Reads: Are the Polls Undercounting Dem Voters?

Good morning — and Happy Halloween! October 31 is also recognized by the UN as Seven Billion Day, marking the date in 2011 when the human population hit that number.

Four days to go…

John Frank reports for The Denver Post that its final poll shows a dead heat between Democratic incumbent Mark Udall and his Republican challenger Corey Gardner.
At FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver says that there’s a good chance that we’ll have to wait until the results of one or more runoffs before we know the final outcome of the 2014 midterms. The process could drag on until January.
At The Upshot, Nate Cohn writes that “polls have generally underestimated Democrats in recent years, and there are reasons to think it could happen again.”
Michael Beckel reports for the Center for Public Integrity that one out of every seven ads broadcast in the Kentucky Senate race has been paid for by a shadowy entity whose only earthly presence appears to be a P.O. Box in a shopping center.
Speaking of Kentucky, The Nation’s Lee Fang reports on Mitch McConnell’s ties to a sketchy international shipping company owned by his wife’s family. Colombian authorities are currently investigating after drugs were discovered aboard one of its ships.
On Wednesday, Sen. Rand Paul said that the Republican brand “sucks,” adding: “The problem is the perception is that no one in the Republican Party cares.” Alexander Bolton reports for The Hill.

Kicking the hornet’s nest –> According to The Guardian, the UN is warning that “foreign jihadists are swarming into the twin conflicts in Iraq and Syria on ‘an unprecedented scale’ and from countries that had not previously contributed combatants to global terrorism.” AND: WaPo’s Greg Miller reports that US-led airstrikes aren’t deterring the flow of fighters into Syria.

Silver lining –> At TPM, Rick Hasen writes that despite the Supreme Court’s upholding of voter ID in Texas for Tuesday’s election, a future hearing promised in the decision “has the potential to require Texas to get federal approval for any future voting changes for up to the next decade, and to make it much more difficult for the state to pass more restrictive voting rules.”

Repeat offenders –> As frustrating as it is that huge Wall Street banks are able to enter into civil settlements rather than face prosecution, Ben Protess and Jessica Silver-Greenberg report for the NYT that some of those banks aren’t even living up to the terms of the settlements. They call it the equivalent of “violating parole.”

The price of sensationalism –> Armand Sprecher, a physician with Doctors Without Borders, writes at TNR that sloppy media coverage “has sent a chill through… field workers, whose job is challenging enough without the added burden” of being ostracized when they get home.

Post-vote –> Laura Meckler reports for the WSJ that the Obama administration is considering measures that would provide relief from deportation for between one and four million unauthorized immigrants who have been in the country for an extended period of time.

“The Green Monster” –> Garrett Graff details in Politico Magazine how the US Border Patrol became “America’s most out-of-control law enforcement agency.”

Yikes –> Earlier this month, Federal agents found ammonium nitrate — an explosive used for home made bombs — in the hotel room of a Texas border militia leader. Brendan James reports for TPM.

“Christie 2016: ‘Vote For Me Or I’ll Punch You Right In Your Stupid Face’” –> At TAP, Paul Waldman ponders New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s famous tough-guy hostility, and wonders how it will play in Iowa if Christie runs.

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